NHL Predictions

All these damned NHL predictions are popping up everywhere. The Triple Deke's got some, ESPN's so-called "experts" have chipped in their worthless two cents and I've decided to jump on the bandwagon. So, no bow or frills attached, here's a few things you should expect to see on the ice in 2009-2010.

• Neither the Blackhawks nor the Capitals are making a run for the Cup. Sorry. Too much hype, too little goaltending, too shitty coaching. They'll be fun to watch, but everywhere I look people are picking the Caps and the Hawks, the Caps and the Hawks. Enough people. They're both above-average teams that don't have what it takes to win a championship. As Puckin' Right boldly suggests, I'm not even sure if the Hawks have what it takes to come in second in the Central. Speaking of which...
  
• The Red Wings will win the Central again. They always do. We'll see about the postseason, but for now, there's nothing in this world that says the Wings won't at least win the Central and get a top two seed in the West.
• The Penguins will be sucked into a black hole and disappear forever, never to return again as an NHL team. President Obama celebrates the occasion and declares a National Holiday where we sit around and eat cupcakes while insulting Rosby's unborn children.

That's all I'm predicting. I didn't say I'd have much, but I don't care enough to look up how the Atlanta Thrashers are going to do this year, so I'll stick to what I know: the Hawks and Caps are being ridiculously overrated right now, the Wings will win the Central and the Pens will no longer exist by the end of the year and the world will be better for it. I'll be waiting with that "I told you so" in June.

The Reclamation of Pride

University of Michigan football. It dominates my life in the fall, and I'm just as enthusiastic this year despite their 3-9 record last year. Why? Well, the fact that I can have optimism about sports after the Red Wings' loss is reason to jump for joy in itself, but also because Coach Rod has a few more of his guys in place and another year of his system in the making. I'm psyched for college football's return, and I think Michigan has a good chance to completely turn around from last year's embarrassments and take a step or two in the right direction. Here's my official preview of the 2009 Michigan Wolverines.

First, let's look at the schedule. It's not hard. At all. I count five games that Michigan should even have the possibility of losing. But then again, they did lose to Toledo at home last year, so I can't really make those assumptions. Anyway, here's the schedule with my own preseason predictions:

• Western Michigan. Win, 34-10.
  
• Notre Dame. Win, 23-20.
  
• Eastern Michigan. Win, 27-14.
  
• Indiana. Win, 31-23.
  
• at Michigan State. Win, 45-38 in 2OT.
  
• at Iowa. Loss, 10-28.
  
• Delaware State. Win, 24-3.
  
• Penn State. Win, 14-13.
  
• at Illinois. Loss, 17-23.
  
• Purdue. Win, 42-31.
  
• at Wisconsin. Loss, 20-27.
  
• Ohio State. Win. 1,000,000-0.

That last score against the Backstabbing Bastards from Buckeye Country should tell you all you need to know about my predictions: they're just about as useful as a fork when you're eating tomato soup. I know nothing about how this year will turn out, but my endless optimism about Michigan and their beautiful winged helmets and their unmatched fight song tell me they will reverse the curse of a crappy year and take a 3-9 (2-6) record in 2008 to 9-3 (5-3) in 2009.

Why did I make such a crazy prediction you ask? Here's a few reasons.

First, they play eight of 12 games at home. That's not only ridiculous, it's pretty damn helpful. They play four softies in a row in the Big House and I think if they can manage to win all of those games, they can get a little momentum rolling and win a tough road game (Michigan State) and another couple big games down the stretch (Penn State, Ohio State).

Obviously, that's a stretch to begin with. But they've got lots of talent coming in and I've always believed in freshmen players more than I should because I've been blessed with watching the incredible freshmen years of Chad Henne, Mike Hart and John Navarre, among others. I've also seen guys like Adrian Peterson, Pat White and Steve Slaton dominate in their freshmen years. So, why not Michigan's Tate Forcier (below left) or Denard Robinson (below right)? Forcier looks great from the video I've seen and the articles I've read, and all the hype about Robinson makes him sound like the second-coming of Michael Vick - Virginia Tech version. How can I not be excited?

And, as Michigan Sports Center writes, everyone is making wayy too big of a deal about the whole "Michigan is going to start 3 QBs in their season opener" thing. Here's RichRod's exact quote from media day:

“In what order and how many, I couldn’t tell you,” Rodriguez said Sunday at media day. “Right now, all three of them look like they’re going to play in the opener.

“Again, it’s two weeks out. There is a lot going to happen in the next two weeks.”

Hmm...after reading that today, I have no idea what all the hubbub is about. Did anyone quote him? Everyone just made a huge leap and assumed that RichRod would actually play all three QBs in the opener. From that quote, it sounds to me like the competition between Sheridan, Forcier and Robinson is way too close to call and he has no idea who will be his starter yet. Maybe three QBs will play, maybe two or maybe just one. But nothing in that quote tells me for sure that all three will play, so that's a calming breeze for everyone freaking out about the possibility of a quarterback carousel. My vote? I'm pulling for Forcier, with some Robinson thrown in at tailback. That's a deadly combination in my imagination.

Next, they have Zoltan Mesko. Never heard of him? Shame on you. He's the best punter in the NCAA and probably the best kicker Michigan's had in a while. Since I imagine Michigan will be punting a lot while they try to hit their stride in the first few games, Zoltan the Space Emperor will help the Wolverines keep good field position and give some confidence to the defense. It can't be good that I'm lavishing praise at Michigan's punter and hailing him as a key point to their success, but how can you doubt a guy with a name like Zoltan Mesko?

Finally, it's Michigan football. From the helmets with wings to the song the crowd sings, Michigan football is about pride and the players, coaches and fans represent the best college football program in history. Last year, they were written off from the beginning and a laughingstock by season's end, but one year doesn't erase history. One year doesn't mean anything. Sure, it sucked from a fan's point of view. But that's over now. It's time to reclaim that pride, that history, that sense of entitlement. Let's. Go. Blue!

Stanley Cup Finals Preview

Here we are again. The Detroit Red Wings and the Pittsburgh Penguins in the Stanley Cup Finals. I don't think it's any coincidence that every season the Red Wings have played since I started this blog has led them to the Finals. I'm two-for-two, baby. Looks like if I keep this up, we could see the Red Wings pass the Canadiens' mark for most cups as early as 2022. I won't let you down, Wings fans.

Anyway, so this is supposed to be a preview. I'm on top of it. I can't come up with a preview that has the type of hilarity and awesomeness that you'll find at The Triple Deke, but I'll do my best to break down the hockey aspect of things as I see it.

Stanley Cup Finals

(2) Detroit Red Wings vs. (4) Pittsburgh Penguins

Whew. At the beginning of this year's playoffs, I can say I totally expected Detroit to be here, and I kind of expected the Penguins to be here. I thought the Bruins and Penguins series would go seven games, but it turns out Carolina has a hockey team that plays well every once in a while. Here's something to cheer you up though, Bruins fans: the Sharks still lost in the first round, and they were supposedly the best team in hockey! God I love the playoff version of Evgeni Nabokov. He never disappoints.

I keep getting sidetracked, but I swear I'm getting to the real intriguing aspects of the series. Crosby vs. Zetterberg. Malkin vs. Datsyuk (I hope). Lidstrom's constant domination and Kronwall's crushing hits. The Nightmare on Helm Street (coincidentally the best nickname ever). French names like Maxime, Marc-Andre, Philippe and Mathieu pitted against foreign awesome ones like Valtteri, Pavel, Johan, and Ville. The Hossa situation. The "young guns" against the "old men," part two. Shitsburgh vs. Detoilet. It's all on the line. This is the best of playoff hockey.

Many comparisons are being made by the pundits between these Penguins and the Gretzky-Messier Oilers from the early 1980s. I think that besides the fact that those Oilers played the Islanders two Stanley Cup Finals in a row and these Penguins are playing the Red Wings two Stanley Cup Finals in a row, there is no comparison. These Penguins finished fourth in the conference this year and didn't quite reach 100 points, while those Oilers finished 32 points ahead of everyone and had an astounding 119 points in an 80 game season in 1983-84. These Penguins have a lot of question marks, despite two straight Cup Finals, and those Oilers went on to win five Cups in seven years. I'll drink battery acid if Pittsburgh can match that feat by 2016. Just because it was Gretzky-Messier and now it's Crosby-Malkin, doesn't mean there are real similarities. Put it to bed. These Red Wings match-up much more closely with those Oilers, despite their "old age."

I learned the only thing I need to know about this series today. Lidstrom is a go for game one. Alrighty then. If he's good for game one, he'll be good for the series. Done deal. And that is a huge problem for the Penguins. Lidstrom and Zetterberg will shut down (and I mean shut down) Crosby and Malkin to a point where they're dangerous but under control. As Buccigross wrote in his column today, Hossa and Franzen will create serious match-up problems with the Penguins' defensive corps. Draper is expected back later in the series, so his faceoff fortitude will again come into play in the most important games. Fleury has been great, but has shown weakness (see the Flyers series). Osgood has been even better than he was last year. The Wings haven't really needed their top scorers because their depth has been so good. These Penguins are hot, but the fact still remains that for most of the season, they were a mediocre club without much confidence.

These Wings won't face that same midseason Pittsburgh team, but they can relegate them to that status once more. I see these Red Wings playing with the hunger I didn't see in the regular season. I see these Red Wings playing with the heart that I didn't see in the regular season. Marian Hossa cannot and will not lose this series. If he does, he'll never live it down. But he knows that. And he won't let that happen. He might not be the guy the Wings need most to step up this series, but step up he will. I can guarantee you that.

The Penguins won't be as jittery as they were in games one and two of last year's Finals, where they didn't score as much as a single goal, but they'll still lose them both. And Detroit will, once again, take one of two hard-fought games in Pittsburgh. Only this time, they won't lose at home in game five. All games will be close, all games will be physical. But I see Detroit as the vastly superior team. Detroit in five.

I had to get this post done now, since the first two games will be over in the blink of an eye. I'm pissed at the league and NBC for letting this happen, but it doesn't help complaining about it. Just read Mitch Albom's column and you'll be up to speed. Go Wings!

Here We Go Again: the Conference Finals

From a hockey purist's viewpoint, those NHL conference semifinals were amazing. Three of the four series went the distance and the other one was a hard-fought, back and forth six-gamer. I can't honestly say the best teams won because I still think the Bruins are the 1B team to the Red Wings' 1A in the league, but I suppose you could argue the best teams right now are all moving on.

While I don't claim to be some sort of Nostradamus or even the only one who picked a finals rematch, but I did predict a Wings-Pens Stanley Cup Finals for the second year in a row at the beginning of the season. It looked like a mistake in the middle of the season, but the Penguins' new coach Dan Bylsma has really lifted that team and they look as strong as ever.

I picked three of the final four according to my second round picks (even though I had both the 'Canes and the 'Hawks out in my first round picks), and I am not too surprised with how the series went. The Wings had a long battle with the Ducks and won because they were the better team. The Penguins did the same with the Capitals, but showed a slight chink in their armor when they couldn't close out the series at home in game six. The Blackhawks beat the Canucks and I still don't care, and the Bruins crushed the Hurricanes in three games. Shit, they had to win four? Damn...you got me. I'm still shocked that the Bruins lost to the 'Canes; I really am. They were better for every second of the three games they won, but fell asleep every once in a while in the four games they lost. Plenty of my friends are heartbroken and disappointed, but the Bruins have a bright future ahead. It's too bad they couldn't make it further in the playoffs, but they'll be back in the next few seasons to come; that I am sure of.

Looking forward, these are two interesting matchups to try and sift through. There are little nuances that make me think they could both go the opposite way that I'm predicting, but in the end I think I'll come out with two correct choices. Let's dive in.

Eastern Conference Finals

(4) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (6) Carolina Hurricanes


The Pens look strong. Marc-Andre Fleury is playing well and has the capacity to steal games, and Crosby and Malkin are two of the game's best scorers. They have depth with Jordan Staal, Bill Guerin, Chris Kunitz, and Kris Letang and a solid core of defenders led by Sergei Gonchar and Ryan Whitney. That said, they also have the tendency to give up a lot of goals every once in a while and can be overcome by speed and resiliency. The Hurricanes never say die; they have a very good goalie in Cam Ward (who is 4-0 in game sevens and has never lost a playoff series in his career) and a great mix of talent and veteran guys. Eric Staal is only a small step below the guys like Crosby and Malkin, and Rod Brind'amour wins a ton of faceoffs is a tested playoff guy. I didn't even realize he was still alive this year until I saw his ugly mug on the bench in the Bruins series. Yikes. Anyway, this series could really go either way. I can't believe the Hurricanes won the Cup two years ago, then missed the playoffs two years in a row, and are now in a good position to try and capture another championship, but it's happening so it's hard to count them out now. On the other hand, Pittsburgh has the experience of last year's playoffs and a great young team that will be very hard to slow down. I'm going to go ahead and pick the Pens in a short one, but it could easily be a long series with the Canes coming out on top. Pittsburgh in five.

Western Conference Finals

(2) Detroit Red Wings vs. (4) Chicago Blackhawks


Well, the NHL certainly did a great job in getting two teams I venomously hate to play the Red Wings back-to-back in the playoffs. Nice work. It helps my blood pressure go off the charts when I'm playing an opponent I can't stand. Last year, that happened in the first two rounds with the Predators and the Avs, but I don't really hate the Stars or Penguins so those rounds weren't as exciting on the hate-scale. Last series though, was absolutely ridiculous. Every game I wanted to see the Ducks die on the ice, especially Sasquatch and Corey Perry. They drive me insane. The same goes for the Hawks, but on a smaller scale. I don't like 'em one bit, and with each game these Chicago fans and Toews and Kane lovers are making me sick. Toews is not pronounced Taves, first of all. I hate that. And he's not the second-coming of Steve Yzerman, like many Chicagoans have said, because that would literally be the second-coming of God and I just don't see an idiotic Blackhawks youngun constituting such incredible rapture. So, knock that off. Stevie Y is the one and only; you'll just have to get used to that.

See what I mean? All this nastiness and I haven't even started in on the actual series yet. I'll get to it, I swear. But first, look at Patrick Kane. He's 11 years old. He shouldn't be in the NHL. His whining antics about hating Detroit sports teams is cute, but his super-cool Power Rangers backpack (the hologram changes when you move it!) and life-supply of fruit snacks and pudding are evidence enough that he's just a kid. I can't wait to see his crying face when the Blackhawks lose; I wonder if he'll use his first swear word if they get swept!

In all seriousness, I hate Nikolai Khabibulin the Blackhawks are a solid young squad. They have offense, defense, goaltending, and special teams. They don't have experience like the Wings do, but I feel like their puppy-like energy and comeback potential will limit the effect of not having any playoff experience. The Red Wings are just really, really freakin' good at everything, and they should win every seven-game series they play. It's that simple right now. They might not win, but they should. And with that as my basic argument, there's no way I can pick a close one. Pavel Datsyuk will do much better this series after struggling against Anaheim's burly defenders, and the rest of the offense will provide enough support to drown the 'Hawks. The only way I see the Blackhawks winning this series is if they rebuild the 'Bulin Wall so that he can handle 40 saves nightly and manage to get a couple goals at the right time each game. They absolutely cannot win a scoring race with Detroit like they did against Vancouver. They will be swept or forced to forfeit if they try that route. But, it doesn't matter; the 'Hawks are the Wings' bitch, and that's not changing in 2009. Detroit in six.

It all starts tomorrow. Go Wings.

2009 NHL Playoff Preview!

I may not get enough sleep. I may not have the time to shower everyday. But this week, I have the NHL playoffs to look forward to. April is simply the best for sports: the Final Four, the Frozen Four, Opening Day, the Masters, and, saving the best for last, the NHL playoffs. I've written countless times how there is just nothing like it in sports and that feeling won't ever change. The intensity is unmatched throughout the entire two-month battle. Even some non-hockey fans tune in to watch! What other evidence do you need?

And, following upon last year's tradition, I decided to make my playoff predictions for the first round once again. I'm in a five-dollar, March-Madness-esque pool with some friends at school to try and decide hockey bragging rights, but I've thought about it for days and there's only one thing that matters: the Wings. I could make seven asinine picks and still be happy as long as my boys in Red move on. I could lose my left arm to an angry Blue Jackets fan and still be happy as long as the train to 12 keeps on rollin'. But Cam, you'd lose your left arm for the rest of your life! There's no way one more Cup would make you happy all those years...You make a good point Italics. But you're forgetting that Blue Jackets fans don't exist. They're all in your iiiii-ma-ginnnn-aaayyy-shunnn! Anyway, time for the picks; I don't have time to be arguing with myself in different font styles all night.

Eastern Conference Match-Ups

(1) Boston Bruins vs. (8) Montreal Canadiens


This looks familiar. The Bruins were in the Canadiens' spot last season and took the series all the way to a seventh game. The Canadiens haven't looked very good this year, due to a lot of injuries and a dash of Carey Price, but I think they'll turn it up a notch for the playoffs. Problem is, they'll be facing a Bruins team that has been incredible this year. My question all season long for the B's was their goaltending. Not that it was suspect, but that they might have trouble settling on one guy and having a mental game of tug-of-war where everybody loses. Looks like they're set on Thomas though, so I see them winning their first playoff series since 1999. Boston in seven.

(2) Washington Capitals vs. (7) New York Rangers


Interesting series. Lopsided, in my opinion, but interesting nonetheless. The Rangers choke. They do. They always have great teams on paper and lose in the playoffs if they can even make it there. This season, they looked amazing at the beginning of the year, but then Brandon Dubinsky and Nigel Dawes started playing like the real Brandon Dubinsky and Nigel Dawes and the team almost lost their way to a lottery pick. Meanwhile, the Capitals have been very good all year. Good defense, great offense, solid goaltending. I don't like Jose Theodore any more than the next guy, but I don't think he's due for a meltdown quite yet. Washington in five.

(3) New Jersey Devils vs. (6) Carolina Hurricanes


I fell flat on my face with a New Jersey pick last year against the Rangers, when the team defense completely fell apart and left their boy Marty out to dry, but this year the team is different. They may have slipped a bit off of their great mid-season pace, but the Devils still have Zach Parise and Martin Brodeur. Lots of people are picking the Hurricanes to upset the Devils here, but I can see right through that. There is no way in hell that two teams from the Eastern Conference's South division are advancing to the second round. Based on that and the big 'ol chip on Marty's shoulder, I'm taking the Jersey Jean-Skiers. New Jersey in seven.

(4) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (5) Philadelphia Flyers


These two teams met last year in the Eastern Conference Finals. This year, one has to go home in April. Sounds unfair to me, but I don't make the rules. The Penguins have been an enigma this year. With two of the top three scorers in the league and a solid young goalie, the Pens should have been competing for the East's top spot all year. So what if they lost Ryan Malone and Marian Hossa? It's still the freakin' East! But after a huge slump that had people saying they wouldn't even make the playoffs, they picked up Bill Guerin and Chris Kunitz at the deadline and climbed the ladder once again. The Flyers, on the other hand, have been fighting in the trenches all season. I love Mike Richards and I love veteran Simon Gagne, but I just don't see it. The Pens are just too talented and more importantly, too good at Mellon Arena. Pittsburgh in six.

Western Conference Match-Ups

(1) San Jose Sharks vs. (8) Anaheim Ducks


God, I hate both of these teams. I don't hate them enough to predict (slash hope-for) an explosion, but I'd love to see them beat the living crap out of each other. And oddly enough, that's exactly what I expect. The Sharks and Ducks played a home-and-home series already this month, and it was fantastic theater. The games were full of fights, penalties and very few goals. It was playoff hockey at its finest. The seeds don't matter here, especially with the experience the Ducks have in the playoffs over the past couple years. My boy John Buccigross picked the Sharks in a close series because "San Jose's home ice and goaltending give it the edge." Home ice and goaltending, huh Bucci? Might want to rethink that reasoning. San Jose has Evgeni Nabokov (Playoffs Version) as their "goaltending," and the Ducks have 22 road wins this year. Down goes Frazier in the Shark Tank. Anaheim in seven.

(2) Detroit Red Wings vs. (7) Columbus Blue Jackets


People are jumping all over this series like its the next incarnation of the 2003 Ducks, who swept the second-seeded Wings when they were defending Stanley last time. It's the perfect Rocky scenario! Steve Mason is gonna take down the champs! Please. The Wings are too experienced to let that happen, and they still have the Cup hunger in Marian Hossa, who wants to make his offseason pay cut worthwhile. Once this team gets going, they will be hard to stop. All they need to do is squeeze a couple past Mason and get in his head. Then, it's a done deal. Detroit in six.

(3) Vancouver Canucks vs. (6) St. Louis Blues


The Schmucks and the Lose. Two hot teams that don't have any chance to win the Cup. Ah, so sad. But someone does have to win this series, I suppose. I pick the blue team! Oh, damn. Color selection won't work in this one. I guess I actually have to think about it for a second. The Sundins will probably win because Roberto Luongo is the best goalie in the league and usually plays well in the playoffs, but I could see T.J. Oshie and Chris Mason stealing a few overtime games and taking the series to the limit. Vancouver in six.

(4) Chicago Blackhawks vs. (5) Calgary Flames


Melrose: Blackhawks in seven. Buccigross: Blackhawks in seven. LeBrun: Blackhawks in five. Hradek: Blackhawks in five. Burnside: Blackhawks in six. They're a team of rookies with a goaltending controversy! Hasn't anyone noticed this? I feel like I'm taking crazy pills! The Flames have Jarome Iginla, Olli Jokinen and Mike Cammalleri on the same line! They have Miika freaking Kiprusoff! I don't care if they only have three forward lines...Chicago hasn't been in the playoffs since who the hell cares and Calgary has Miika Kiprusoff! Why do I feel the need to explain myself!? The choice is clear to me, even if it's cloudy for everybody else. Calgary in six.

I need to get back to work. Early wake-up call and still lots left to do tonight. Enjoy the picks, and Happy Playoffs! It all starts tomorrow...